{"id":875,"date":"2024-07-12T00:54:07","date_gmt":"2024-07-12T00:54:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/?p=875"},"modified":"2024-07-12T00:55:29","modified_gmt":"2024-07-12T00:55:29","slug":"movies-television-and-streaming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/?p=875","title":{"rendered":"Movies, Television, and Streaming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Correlation never equals causality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe that one line sums up &#8220;logic 101&#8221; and\/or &#8220;statistics 101.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The example I used to hear was that there was a positive correlation between ice cream sales and drowning. As ice cream sales increase so does the number of deaths by drowning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUT eating ice cream does not CAUSE drowning deaths &#8212; i.e. when is more ice cream sold? in the summer. When do more people go swimming? in the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also data out there connecting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/spurious-correlation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;eating cheese&#8221; and &#8220;strangulation&#8221;<\/a> &#8212; but again, eating cheese does NOT cause strangulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This concept is important &#8211; just in general &#8211; but also when talking about the rise of &#8220;streaming&#8221; and &#8220;movie theater&#8221; attendance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Movies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When going to the &#8220;movies&#8221; first became a cultural event 100ish years ago it was a much different experience. Back in that &#8220;golden era&#8221; of movie theaters folks would go as a WEEKLY &#8220;family night out&#8221; &#8212; there might have been a news reel, a cartoon, and then a feature presentation.<br><br>Other &#8220;family entertainment&#8221; options might have been staying home and listening to the radio. &#8220;Live theater&#8221;, and musical concerts might have been an option IF they happened to be in town. Back at that time the &#8220;Circus&#8221; coming to town would have been a much bigger deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The primary source of &#8220;news&#8221; would have still been print newspapers &#8211; and &#8220;sports&#8221; like boxing, horse racing, baseball, college football were popular &#8211; again either on the radio or attending live events. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUT &#8220;the movies&#8221; were the bread and butter of family entertainment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Television<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;golden age of radio&#8221; was relatively short &#8211; from the late 1920s to the 1950&#8217;s. Radio and movies might have been in the same general &#8220;entertainment&#8221; markets but they are much different &#8220;experiences.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Visuals AND sound&#8221; tends to beat &#8220;just sound&#8221; &#8212; BUT &#8220;going to the movies&#8221; would have been an EVENT, while turning on the radio an everyday experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Television became popular in the 1950s it ended the &#8220;golden age&#8221; of radio &#8211; and also forced the &#8220;movie industry&#8221; to adapt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>e.g. hunt up some old &#8220;B&#8221; Westerns and you&#8217;ll discover that they tend to be about an hour long &#8211; and the &#8220;weekly serial&#8221; adventure\/cliff hanger shorts tend to be 20 to 45 minutes. Which sounds a LOT like &#8220;television&#8221; program lengths to the &#8220;modern audience.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot of those &#8220;B&#8221; Western stars also had radio shows &#8211; and the popular show made the jump from radio to television. There was still a sizable market for both television and radio in the early days. The popular shows probably had a comic book and\/or daily newspaper comic strip as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;point&#8221; being that folks wanted &#8220;entertainment&#8221; NOT a specific TYPE of entertainment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Television ended the &#8220;weekly ritual&#8221; of going to the movies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;movie industry&#8221; responded by increasing the &#8220;production value&#8221; of movies. Movies were &#8220;bigger&#8221; and &#8220;better&#8221; than television programming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;movie&#8221; advantage was still the bigger screen and the EVENT status. The product required to attract the audience into the theaters obviously changed &#8211; gimmicks like 3D, &#8220;Technicolor&#8221;, CinemaScope came and went.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, the one 20th Century invention that can rival television for &#8220;cultural impact&#8221; is the automobile. I would tend to argue that the increased &#8220;mobility&#8221; automobiles allowed makes them the most influential and\/or culturally transformational. BUT the point is arguable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This &#8220;automobile&#8221; changed &#8220;dating and mating&#8221; rituals. PART of that change involved &#8220;going to the movies.&#8221; At the height there were 4,000 &#8220;drive in&#8221; movie theaters spread across the U.S. (in the 1950s). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of those Baby-boomers doing there thing would have found the &#8220;drive in&#8221; the more economical option. The post war economic boom created &#8220;teenagers&#8221; would have had &#8220;going to the movies&#8221; as an option to &#8220;get away from parents&#8221; and be, well, &#8220;teenagers.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;movie theater business&#8221; was disrupted by a Supreme Court ruling in 1948. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/supremecourt\/text\/334\/131\"><em>United States v. Paramount<\/em><\/a>\u00a0on May 4, 1948 effectively ended the &#8220;studio system&#8221; &#8211; &#8220;studio&#8221; would no longer be allowed to own &#8220;theaters.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An unintended consequence of ending the &#8220;studio system&#8221; was that a lot of &#8220;talent&#8221; was released from contracts, studios opened up their film libraries and\/or sold them to television stations. The number of &#8220;regular moviegoers&#8221; decreased from 90 million in 1948 to 46 million in 1958. Television ownership went from 8,000 in 1946 to 46 million in 1960<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SO if you REALLY want to put a date on the START of the death of  the &#8220;movie theater business&#8221; &#8211; May 4, 1948<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cable, VCRs, DVDs &#8230;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course &#8220;movie theaters&#8221; have had a long slow decline. To coin a phrase: The reports of &#8220;movie theater&#8217;s death&#8221; has been greatly exaggerated &#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cable TV rolled across the U.S. starting in the 1970&#8217;s. HBO came along in 1972.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>&#8220;You want romance? In Ridgemont? We can&#8217;t even get cable TV here, Stacy, and you want romance!&#8221;<\/p><cite><em>Fast Times at Ridgemont High<\/em> 1982<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Drive in theaters continued to close &#8211; but they haven&#8217;t disappeared yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the 1970&#8217;s television had replaced &#8220;the movies&#8221; in terms of &#8220;cultural impact&#8221; &#8211; BUT the &#8220;birth of the blockbuster&#8221; illustrated that &#8220;the movies&#8221; weren&#8217;t dead yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course the typical &#8220;movie theater&#8221; has not made a large % of their profits from SHOWING movies for a long time &#8211; i.e. theaters tend to  make money at the concession stand NOT from ticket sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact that &#8220;going to the movies&#8221; was still a distinct experience from &#8220;watching at home&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Movie studios were gifted a new revenue stream in the 1980s when &#8220;VCR&#8221; ownership created the &#8220;VHS\/Video Rental Store.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, &#8220;seeing it in the theater&#8221; with a crowd on the big screen with &#8220;theater quality sound&#8221; is still a distinct experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>DVD&#8217;s provided superior picture AND sound than VHS &#8211; and the DVD quickly replaced the VCR. The &#8220;Rental Store&#8221; just shifted from VHS tapes to DVD&#8217;s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUT the BIG impact of DVD&#8217;s was their durability and lightweight. DVDs could be played multiple times with out lose of quality (VHS tapes degraded a little each viewing), AND they could even be safely (cheaply) mailed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Netflix started in 1997. The &#8220;Reed Hastings\/Netflix story&#8221; is interesting &#8211; but not important at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a &#8220;movie theater&#8221; point of view &#8211; &#8220;The Phantom Menace&#8221; being released as a &#8220;digital&#8221; film in 1999 was a &#8220;transitional moment.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The music industry as a whole bungled their &#8220;digital&#8221; transition to the point that a couple generations of folks have grown up expecting &#8220;music&#8221; to be &#8220;free.&#8221; THAT is a different subject &#8212; <br><br>I&#8217;ll point out that a &#8220;digital product&#8221; can easily be reproduced without lose of quality. If I have a &#8220;digital&#8221; copy of &#8220;media&#8221; I can easily reproduce exact duplicates. No need for a &#8220;manufacturing&#8221; and a &#8220;shipping&#8221; process &#8211; just &#8220;copy&#8221; from 1 location to the new location. Exact copy. Done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the &#8220;movie industry&#8221; in the short term the transition to &#8220;digital&#8221; helped lower distribution costs. Copies of films didn&#8217;t need to be created and shipped from theater to theater in &#8220;cans of film&#8221; &#8211; just copy the new movie to the digital projector&#8217;s hard drive and you are all set. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The combination of the &#8220;home computer&#8221; and &#8220;internet access&#8221; also deserve the &#8220;cultural shift&#8221; label &#8211; but it was really &#8220;more of the same&#8221; done &#8220;faster and cheaper.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Streaming<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It is trendy to blame &#8220;streaming&#8221; movies of the death of &#8220;theaters&#8221; &#8212; but hopefully by this point I&#8217;ve made the point that &#8220;streaming&#8221; is not the CAUSE of the decline of theaters. At best the &#8220;rise of streaming&#8221; and the &#8220;decline of theaters&#8221; are correlated &#8211; BUT (all together now)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Correlation never equals causality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Streaming&#8221; deserves credit for killing &#8220;Movie rental stores&#8221; &#8212; but the &#8220;theater experience&#8221; is still the &#8220;theater experience&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MY issue with &#8220;going to the theater&#8221; is that ticket prices have pretty much kept up with inflation. Which kinda means a generic &#8220;family of four&#8221; has to take out a small loan to &#8220;go to the movies.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m placing the recent decline in theater attendance on &#8220;inflation&#8221; and &#8220;bad product.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the &#8220;movie industry&#8221; has been churning out self-righteous garbage NOT &#8220;entertainment.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUT there is still a demand for &#8220;family friendly entertainment&#8221; &#8212; &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt22022452\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Inside Out 2<\/a>&#8221; setting box office records illustrates my point<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Old Theaters &#8230;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I like not having to wait in line &#8211; but also kinda miss the &#8220;old theater&#8221; feel. That 20 screen &#8220;mega plex&#8221; is nice but there is still room for renovated &#8220;old theaters&#8221; if they can be updated without losing their &#8220;charm.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be clear the &#8220;charm&#8221; of old theaters does NOT include &#8220;uncomfortable seats&#8221; and feet sticking to the floor. If someone tries to &#8220;rehab&#8221; a theater I&#8217;d spend most of the money on the bathrooms and comfortable seating<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Folks need to feel &#8220;safe&#8221; AND &#8220;comfortable&#8221; then if the popcorn is a little stale it doesn&#8217;t matter &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Correlation never equals causality. Maybe that one line sums up &#8220;logic 101&#8221; and\/or &#8220;statistics 101.&#8221; The example I used to hear was that there was a positive correlation between ice cream sales and drowning. As ice cream sales increase so does the number of deaths by drowning. BUT eating ice cream does not CAUSE drowning [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-history","category-movies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=875"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/875\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":880,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/875\/revisions\/880"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iterudio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}